{"id":1912,"date":"2016-02-25T13:28:40","date_gmt":"2016-02-25T13:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/?p=1912"},"modified":"2016-02-25T13:28:40","modified_gmt":"2016-02-25T13:28:40","slug":"turkey-the-eastern-question-is-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/?p=1912","title":{"rendered":"Turkey: The Eastern Question is back"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By JONATHAN MARCUS (diplomatic correspondent)<br \/>\n<em>BBC<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>History has a strange way of imposing itself upon the present.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Back in the early 1990s, when I was on my way to join the first British troops despatched for peace-keeping duties to Bosnia, I stayed overnight at a Vienna hotel. In the lobby, there was a series of 19th Century maps of the Hapsburg Empire.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/covcasbulletin-info.hhd.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/BBC-News-logo.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1913\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-1913\" src=\"https:\/\/covcasbulletin-info.hhd.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/BBC-News-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"211\" height=\"146\" \/><\/a>There they were, all of the old names &#8211; Bosnia Herzegovina, the Croat lands &#8211; names, long consigned to the history books, that were now the currency of nightly news reports, marking out the boundaries of this latest tragedy in the Balkans.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Later, standing in Sarajevo&#8217;s old Turkish market, one had the clear sense of being in a historic border zone; a frontier between Europe and the old Ottoman lands to the east.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It was a reminder that for much of the 19th Century, Western diplomacy had been obsessed with what became known as &#8220;the Eastern Question.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This was the fear as to what might happen as the Ottoman Empire &#8211; then seen as &#8220;the sick man of Europe&#8221; &#8211; slowly relinquished its grip on its various possessions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Who might step into the breach? One obvious concern was Russia. Britain and France had already fought one campaign to bolster Turkey and limit Russia&#8217;s influence in the Holy Land &#8211; the Crimean War of the 1850s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Crimean War:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fought over Tsar Nicholas I of Russia&#8217;s plan to carve up the European part of Turkey<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">Britain and France objected to Russian expansionism, but favoured a diplomatic settlement<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">Russia occupied the Danubian Principalities (Modavia and Walachia) in July 1853, prompting a military response from Turkey<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">Britain and France entered the fray the following spring, after the Russians ignored a demand to evacuate the Danubian Principalities<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">The allies fought a year-long campaign in the Crimean peninsula, including three major land battles, one of which, the Battle of Balaclava, ended with the British &#8220;Charge of the Light Brigade&#8221;<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">Eventually, the Russians were forced to evacuate the key naval base of Sevastopol, in September 1855<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">25,000 British, 100,000 French and up to a million Russians died, almost all of disease and neglect<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the Treaty of Paris, signed on 39 March 1856, Russia returned southern Bessarabia and the mouth of the Danube to Turkey. Moldavia, Walachia and Serbia were placed under international administration<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Do you see a pattern here? Again those familiar names and themes; the Crimea; Russian influence in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Times change &#8211; but geography doesn&#8217;t, and strategic interests have as much to do with geography as they do with anything else.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thus, Europe now faces what might be called &#8220;a new Eastern Question&#8221;.<br \/>\n<strong><br \/>\nAmbitious Turkey<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is not so much Turkey&#8217;s weakness that is the problem today; it is maybe more a question of Ankara&#8217;s over-reach.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Turkey has seemingly achieved the impossible.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">I remember some years ago interviewing the then Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. Bookish, a former professor, he was the proud architect of Turkey&#8217;s new foreign policy, one of zero problems with any of its neighbours.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Now, Mr Davutoglu is Prime Minister. And in the intervening years, Turkey seems instead to have developed problems with almost all of its neighbours and erstwhile regional partners; be it Syria, Israel, and now, crucially, Russia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moscow and Ankara find themselves on different sides in the Syrian crisis; Moscow backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad&#8217;s government, and Turkey in the vanguard of those countries most eager to see his departure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A kind of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.spectator.co.uk\/2016\/02\/putins-winning-in-syria-but-making-a-powerful-new-enemy\/\" target=\"_blank\">proxy war has turned hot<\/a>, with Russia bombing Syrian opposition groups backed by Turkey and encouraging Kurdish forces to press ever closer to the Turkish frontier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Turkey&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2015\/nov\/26\/russia-turkey-jet-mark-galeotti\" target=\"_blank\">shooting down of a Russian warplane<\/a> last November &#8211; a plane that on best evidence had only briefly intruded into Turkish airspace &#8211; worsened the tensions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">More recently, the Russian-backed Syrian offensive on Aleppo has sent new waves of refugees heading for the Turkish border and worsened Ankara&#8217;s fears about Kurdish success.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This &#8220;new Eastern Question&#8221; impinges upon Western Europe in two crucial ways. First, Turkey is a member of Nato.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If it gets itself into a spat with the Russians, this could have dramatic consequences for the alliance as a whole.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It was noticeable at the tail-end of last year that the Nato allies&#8217; very public support for Turkey in the wake of the shooting down of the Russian Sukhoi jet, was tempered, at least in private, by a good degree of amazement and concern that Turkey had chosen to behave so rashly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Migrant problem<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But there is another security dimension too, and that relates to the great wave of refugees, asylum seekers, call them what you will, that are battering on Europe&#8217;s doors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">They, of course come not just from Syria. But the crisis there and the terrible dislocation that it has produced is an important driving factor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Turkey is a conduit for some of this population movement, and this means that the EU must measure its relations with Ankara cautiously.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The implicit threat is there. If the Europeans do not help Turkey with this problem, then Ankara could simply open the gates and send a reinforced human wave westwards.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This could be one reason why western Europe has been largely mute in the face of the Turkish military&#8217;s onslaught against its own Kurdish areas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And it may also be why Turkey&#8217;s self-serving involvement in Syria has similarly been so little criticised.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Apart from opening some of its air bases to help with the US-led air campaign, Turkey has acted in large part to deal with what it sees as a strategic threat from the Kurds, rather than weighing-in against the so-called Islamic State.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Turkey is doing pretty much everything it can to upset Moscow. Just a few days ago, Mr Davutoglu <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/story\/defense\/policy-budget\/industry\/2016\/02\/21\/turkey-ukraine-pledge-strategic-defense-industry-cooperation\/80703822\/\" target=\"_blank\">visited the Ukrainian capital, Kiev<\/a>, to discuss &#8220;strategic cooperation&#8221; between Turkey and Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But bolder Turkish threats to intervene on the ground in Syria &#8211; a step that might put them in direct confrontation with the Russians &#8211; seem to be just that, threats, at least for now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Few analysts are giving much hope to the forthcoming &#8220;ceasefire&#8221; in Syria, seemingly brokered by the US and the Russians.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The hope must be that at a minimum it may allow an opportunity for aid to reach some embattled areas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But if the fighting does continue; if the Syrian government and its allies continue to gain ground, Turkey may well get to a point where it feels it has to act.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The &#8220;new Eastern Question&#8221; may be delayed, but it isn&#8217;t going to go away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>By JONATHAN MARCUS (diplomatic correspondent) BBC History has a strange way of imposing itself upon the present. Back in the early 1990s, when I was <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/?p=1912\" title=\"Turkey: The Eastern Question is back\">[more &gt;&gt;&gt;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1912"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1914,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1912\/revisions\/1914"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}