{"id":2722,"date":"2017-10-30T14:49:41","date_gmt":"2017-10-30T14:49:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/?p=2722"},"modified":"2017-11-15T14:55:57","modified_gmt":"2017-11-15T14:55:57","slug":"georgias-democracy-the-puzzle-of-a-red-country-turning-blue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/?p=2722","title":{"rendered":"Georgia\u2019s Democracy: The Puzzle of a Red Country Turning Blue"},"content":{"rendered":"

By ERIC LIVNY, GIORGI MZHAVANADZE, YAROSLAVA BABYCH
\nGeorgia Today<\/em><\/p>\n

On October 21, 2017, Georgia\u2019s entire political map was painted in different shades of blue \u2013 the color of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. GD won all but one race in the country\u2019s municipal elections \u2013 achieving solid majorities in all sakrebulo (city councils) and placing party-backed candidates as mayors in all cities and self-governing communities.<\/p>\n

Such results are quite unusual, and nearly impossible to achieve nowadays in the politically polarized atmosphere of Western Europe, UK or the U.S.<\/p>\n

Do these results suggest that GD has been exceptionally successful in pleasing the Georgian electorate: implementing a myriad of badly needed reforms (ranging from judiciary, to tax administration, to penitentiary systems), securing relative calm in Georgian-Russian relations (while staying the course of Euro-Atlantic integration!), and achieving visa liberalization with the EU? The proponents of the government would certainly agree with this assessment.<\/p>\n

The opponents (which in the Georgian political landscape are still numerous and vocal) would, however, bring up low economic growth, record lari devaluation, and argue that the Euro-centric foreign policy achievements of GD (like EU visa liberalization or the DCFTA agreement) have sprouted on the ground set by their political predecessors.<\/p>\n

Whatever the verdict on GD\u2019s political achievements, it is worth remembering that just a few years ago Georgia\u2019s entire political landscape was painted in different shades of red, the color of GD\u2019s predecessors, the United National Movement (UNM). UNM\u2019s victory in 2008 parliamentary election process was not a smooth sailing. It was achieved against the backdrop of popular protests on the streets of Tbilisi, yet it was as overwhelming as GD\u2019s triumphs in 2016 and 2017.<\/p>\n

Indeed, it is difficult to reconcile Georgia\u2019s fiercely polarized political life, as observed in Tbilisi, with the results suggested by the electoral maps above, both in 2008 and today. Since massive voting irregularities can be largely ruled out, we need to find a better explanation for the stunning electoral successes of Georgia\u2019s ruling parties.<\/p>\n

GEORGIA: A SINGLE COUNTRY, TWO POLITICAL CULTURES<\/strong><\/p>\n

A key explanation (and a major challenge for Georgia\u2019s fledgling democracy) is the predominant tendency of rural Georgians (and ethnic minority voters in particular) to vote for whoever is currently in power.<\/p>\n

Figures 2(a) and (b) demonstrate the relative ease with which Georgian rural and ethnic minority voters can be swayed to vote for the incumbent administration.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The rural segment of the electorate stayed with the UNM through the (bitter) end in 2012, while all the five biggest cities (Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi and Poti) voted for change.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Four years later, in 2016, the rural population and ethnic minorities were already solidly pro-Georgian Dream, which had by then lost much of its support in Georgia\u2019s largest cities.<\/p>\n

Another very important aspect feature of political behavior of Georgia\u2019s traditional electorate can be gleaned from the results of political attitude surveys conducted by the National Democratic Institute (NDI). While grossly missing out on the actual voting results in 2016, the survey clearly shows a relative tendency among rural voters to refuse to state their political preferences (\u201cno party,\u201d \u201cdon\u2019t know,\u201d \u201crefuse to answer\u201d). The share of those not stating their political preferences was lowest in the capital (46%), followed by large cities (56%), and predominantly rural municipalities (61%). It was highest in ethnic minority municipalities (63%).<\/p>\n

We already know that in reality rural voters tend to bet on the incumbents (UNM in 2012 and GD in 2016). What we learn from the NDI survey is that, being most dependent on handouts by the central government, rural and ethnic minority voters are not willing to take the risk of exposing their pro-government preferences to survey takers who, they think, might represent, or share information with, the opposition forces.<\/p>\n

One could try to explain the radical change in attitudes of Georgia\u2019s rural electorate towards the GD in 2016 parliamentary elections by its success in opening the Russian market for Georgia\u2019s traditional agricultural products in summer 2013, and the drastic increase in the financing of agricultural programs targeting subsistence and semi-subsistence farmers. Yet, while certainly contributing to GD\u2019s electoral victories in 2016 and 2017, the same factors (with a minus sign) did not prevent Saakashvili from securing another term in 2008 and winning a very large share of rural voters in 2012. Georgia\u2019s rural voters tend to be pro-government voters even when the government in power does not deliver on their dreams of inclusive growth and prosperity.<\/p>\n

POLITICAL TRANSITIONS START IN TBILISI, OR DON\u2019T START AT ALL<\/strong><\/p>\n

What are the implications of these voting patterns for Georgia\u2019s ability to genera democratic transitions? The intellectual and business elites in Tbilisi and (to a less extent) in other major cities, such as Batumi and Kutaisi, clearly play a key role in generating political change. Georgia\u2019s 2003 Rose Revolution was won in Tbilisi, not the Georgian countryside. In 2012, Tbilisi overwhelmingly supported Bidzina Ivanishvili\u2019s GD coalition while rural Georgians were still willing to vote for Misha\u2019s UNM.<\/p>\n

Conservative pro-establishment forces get stronger in traditional, rural areas where people\u2019s political agendas are dominated by purely local concerns \u2013 access to utilities, jobs, health and education services (provided by the central government). The pro-establishment vote is most pronounced in ethnic minority-dominated municipalities along Georgia\u2019s southern borders, where people\u2019s attitude towards national policy matters (as opposed to local ones) is best characterized by indifference and apathy.<\/p>\n

Georgia\u2019s most recent local elections suggest that Tbilisi (and, by extension, Georgia as a whole) is not yet ripe for another political transition. Kakha Kaladze, a former football star and GD\u2019s energy minister may not be an exceptional popular candidate, yet his first round victor in Tbilisi\u2019s mayoral race suggests that Georgia\u2019s capital still solidly blue. Furthermore, NDI surveys and the actual election results indicate that the opposition forces \u2013 while quite vocal \u2013 are hopelessly divided. In the absence of a strong unifying opposition leader, it is much easier for GD to win in those areas, where the majority of people would have preferred an alternative to the status quo.<\/p>\n

Strong leaders have always been a crucial factor in Georgian politics. Ruling coalitions and parties have been held together by powerful (formal or informal) leaders: Shevardnadze from 1992\/3 until 2003, Saakashvili from 2003\/4 until 2013, and Bidzina Ivanishvili since 2012. The latter remains at the helm of GD even after resigning from his official positions in 2013. As the \u00e9minence grise of Georgia, he appears to be perfectly capable of maintaining GD\u2019s unity and political domination in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

In the short term, the tendency of rural Georgians to stand by the incumbents is a stabilizing factor. It certainly allows new governments to consolidate their power and implement an ambitious reform agenda, should they wish to do so. In the medium term, however, this very tendency detracts from the vibrancy of Georgia\u2019s democracy. First, it puts the emerging forces of change in Tbilisi and the country\u2019s major urban centers at a disadvantage when it comes to formal channels of influencing policy outcomes, raising the political temperature and creating a fertile ground for destabilizing, violent forms of political expression. Second, it weakens the government\u2019s democratic accountability and reduces its appetite for participatory democratic processes and sound, welfare-enhancing reforms.<\/p>\n

The planned reform of Georgia\u2019s electoral law, which currently facilitates the emergence of parliamentary super-majorities, is quite likely to create a healthier situation in which major political choices are more rigorously contested. However, it would be foolish to assume that any such reform alone would turn Georgia into a full-blown democracy. It will be probably take a protracted civil education effort for the Georgian countryside to fully embrace democratic freedoms and independently and fearlessly exercise their democratic rights.<\/p>\n

Source: http:\/\/www.electionsportal.ge\/. The following classification was used in constructing this chart: \u2018capital\u2019 \u2013 Tbilisi; \u2018urban\u2019 \u2013 Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi (population>100,000); \u2018rural\u2019 – other towns and municipalities (population<100,000); \u2018ethnic minorities\u2019 – municipalities in Kvemo Kartli and Samtskhe-Javakheti regions (Gardabani, Marneuli, Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Tsalka, Tetritskaro, Borjomi, Akhaltsikhe, Adigeni, Aspindza, Akhalkalaki, Ninotsminda), which have the highest shares of ethnic minority population.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By ERIC LIVNY, GIORGI MZHAVANADZE, YAROSLAVA BABYCH Georgia Today On October 21, 2017, Georgia\u2019s entire political map was painted in different shades of blue \u2013 [more >>>]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2723,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,12,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-georgia","category-georgia-minority-rights"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2722"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2722\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2724,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2722\/revisions\/2724"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2723"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/covcasbulletin.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}