FREEDOM HOUSE
Nations in Transit 2016: Azerbaijan
Regime Classification: Consolidated Authoritarian Regime
Democracy Score: 6.86
Nations in Transit Category and Democracy Scores
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Democratic Governance | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
| Electoral Process | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Civil Society | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
| Independent Media | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
| Local Democratic Governance | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| Judicial Framework and Independence | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
| Corruption | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
| Democracy Score | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.39 | 6.46 | 6.57 | 6.64 | 6.68 | 6.75 | 6.86 |
NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. If consensus cannot be reached, Freedom House is responsible for the final ratings. The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s).
Executive Summary:
Azerbaijan remains a deeply authoritarian state, and 2015 saw further aggressive steps from the executive to eliminate all criticism and dissent against a backdrop of mounting economic crisis.
President Ilham Aliyev and his Yeni [New] Azerbaijan Party (YAP) deepened their monopoly on political life in 2015. Rejecting an unfree and unfair electoral system, all of the major opposition parties boycotted the November 1 parliamentary elections. YAP won 71 seats out of 125, with the remainder of seats going to the pocket opposition, which includes 41 “independents” who steadfastly toe the YAP party line. International observers had a limited presence at the elections, as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) declined to conduct its usual monitoring after Azerbaijan refused to admit the necessary number of observers. Local observer groups reported ballot stuffing and inflated reports of voter turnout, among other issues.
Azerbaijan’s civil society was decimated by the 2014 wave of purges and arrests and faced further persecution in 2015. Anar Mammadli, the head of Azerbaijan’s premier election monitoring organization, remained behind bars through 2015 on politically motivated charges. Opposition leader Ilgar Mammadov also remained in jail for all of 2015, where he was subjected to torture and said he fears for his life. Several of the activists put into pretrial detention in 2014 had their cases finally considered by the courts and received lengthy prison sentences. In late 2015, Leyla and Arif Yunus were unexpectedly released from prison to house arrest on humanitarian grounds, but only after numerous hospitalizations and international outcry. Their convictions for fraud and tax evasion remained in effect. The country’s civil society landscape is now dominated by government-organized nongovernmental organizations, or GONGOs.
The already bleak media situation also deteriorated further in 2015. As of December, Azerbaijan had eight journalists in jail. The imprisonment of renowned investigative journalist Khadija Ismayilova did not prevent her from smuggling out messages of hope and resistance from her jail cell or stop her colleagues outside the country from continuing her investigations into high-level corruption in Azerbaijan. The year also was marred by the murder of photojournalist Rasim Aliyev, who was beaten to death in circumstances that suggested a political motive. Self-censorship and a lack of funding have become the norm among Azerbaijani media. Critical outlets like Meydan TV are forced to broadcast from outside the country and work with anonymous reporters inside Azerbaijan. The extended families of such journalists, as well as civil society activists, suffered intense harassment and persecution within the country.
Azerbaijan appears to have made some progress in reducing petty corruption through the increasingly popular ASAN service centers, which are placed around the country to handle routine bureaucratic functions, such as getting an ID card or registering property. Grand corruption continues to be an overwhelming issue, however. Several key Azerbaijani officials were dismissed this year on corruption charges, including former minister of national security Eldar Mahmudov and former minister of communications Ali Abbasov. At the same time, the financial empire of President Ilham Aliyev remains wholly intact and seemingly untouchable. Several new reports published in 2015 unveiled yet more ways Aliyev and his family members expropriate and squander Azerbaijan’s national wealth for their own benefit.
The plummet of global oil prices throughout the year eventually left the dollar peg of Azerbaijan’s manat unsustainable, even after a devaluation in February. After spending nearly $9 billion defending the currency during the year, in late December the government floated the manat, the value of which immediately dropped by more than 30 percent. At the end of the year, rising consumer prices and economic uncertainty pointed to a tense 2016.
Score Changes:
Civil Society rating declined from 6.75 to 7.00 due to the government’s further steps to increase legal restrictions on NGOs, and the conviction and imprisonment of numerous civil society activists, leaving no space for civil society to operate independently.
Independent Media rating declined from 6.75 to 7.00 due to the murder of photojournalist Rasim Aliyev, the conviction of Khadija Ismayilova and numerous other journalists, and harassment and wrongful imprisonment of relatives of journalists based outside the country.
Judicial Framework and Independence rating declined from 6.75 to 7.00 due to the extensive use of the judiciary for persecution of political and civic activists.
As a result, Azerbaijan’s Democracy Score declined from 6.75 to 6.86.
Outlook for 2016: Persistently low oil prices will continue to wield economic pressure in 2016, and protests over basic economic issues could spread across the country. A national budget that relied on oil revenues will be severely strained and cuts will be required, either from social spending or from the government’s treasured international prestige projects, like the 2015 European Games or Formula 1 racing. Azerbaijan’s traditional political opposition will remain weak and divided in 2016, but the country’s younger generation has shown great potential for leadership, activism, and expression, particularly through social media. In response, the Aliyev regime will likely continue to crush even the slightest blushes of dissent among youth, driving them further underground or out of the country, if not into jail.
In foreign policy, throughout 2015 the government increasingly and bitterly criticized human rights and democracy as European and American “double standards” designed to subvert the state. With Russia asserting itself more aggressively across the neighborhood, Azerbaijan looks increasingly susceptible to Russian entreaties for collaboration. The Russian-Turkish conflict over Syria in late 2015 has added another layer of complexity to the government’s geopolitical dilemmas.
Read more https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2016/azerbaijan