By YEKATERINA TESEMNIKOVA
exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Experts had never had a common view on the consequences of the growth of the military budgets and capacities of the armed forces in the South Caucasus. Some make a direct conclusion – if they equip themselves, they are preparing for war; as there is no progress in peaceful settlements of the South Caucasus conflicts, there will be war. Others have an absolutely different view – the more arms they have, the higher the security level is for each state and the whole region, as the balance of forces is maintained.
To understand what a balance of forces is, let’s turn to statistics of the Russian Council for International Affairs, and present data on various countries of the region.
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is the leader in military capacities and military expenses in the South Caucasus. Last year its military budget was $3.7 billion.
67 thousand soldiers and officers serve in the Azerbaijani army. They have 340 tanks (T-90SA and T-72), about 700 armored combat vehicles and armored infantry vehicles. The Air Forces have 14 fighter planes (Fulcrum), 19 attack planes (Frogfoot), 40 attack Mi-24/35 helicopters, and 30 carrying armed Mi-8/17 helicopters. Moreover, Azerbaijan has modernized Soviet vehicles.
Experts note that Baku works with various suppliers. Azerbaijan hadn’t bought arms from Russia till Moscow supplied it with 62 T-72 tanks and new APC-80s in 2007. Since that time the Russian share has been growing on the Azerbaijani market. Since 2010 Russia has started dominating the Azerbaijani military market. Baku has already purchased 24 Mi-35m helicopters, 60 Mi-17 helicopters, two divisions of the surface-to-air missile system S-300PMU-2, 130 T-90SA tanks, 100 BMP-3 armored infantry vehicles, 70 APC-80/82s, 450 various artillery systems and MRLS, 300 man-portable air-defense systems, and 1500 missiles for them.
The package of Russian contracts with Azerbaijan is worth almost $2 billion. Moreover, Baku has purchased arms from Ukraine – 12 BM-30 Smerch and three Scarab B systems, 210 mortar launchers, 45 T-72 tanks, 132 modernized APC-70Di, 14 modernized fighter planes (Fulcrum). Azerbaijan used to purchase arms from Belarus until the mid-2000s; it got 60 T-72 tanks and three 2S7 motorized artillery-type weapons. At the moment Israel has worked its way in to the Azerbaijani market. It exports anti-tank missile complexes Spike-LR and MRLS Lynx, as well as Heron and Searcher UAV.
Thus, Azerbaijan successfully converts its oil dollars into security.
Armenia
According to all parameters, the Armenian army is weaker than the Azerbaijani one. Last year the military budget of Armenia didn’t surpass $447 million. 45 thousand people serve in its army. They have 200 tanks (mainly T-72), about 100 APC and 140 AFV, 240 artillery cannons. The Air Forces have 15 attack planes (Frogfoot) and 10 Mi-24 and Mi-8/17 armored helicopters.
As for weapons procurement, Armenia is behind not only Azerbaijan, but also Georgia. Experts complain that the sphere is kept in secret in Yerevan. It is only known that last year Armenia received 35 T-72 tanks and 110 APC-2 and/or APC-80; several years ago it received 480 machine pistols AK-105, 36 RPK-74M machine guns, several sniper rifles, 32 special KS-23 short rifles, 60 GP-30 grenade launchers, 10 hand-held 6G30-40mm grenade launchers and 603 pistols.
For obvious reasons, Armenia yields to Baku in the arms race. However, the 102nd Russian military base is situated on its territory. It has 74 tanks, 17 APC, 148 BTR, 84 artillery systems, including BM-30 Smerch, 18 fighter planes (Fulcrum), air defense systems S-300V, and Buk-M1-2. 500 soldiers who serve at the base support the balance of forces in the region, but the Russian authorities have many times stated that their soldiers and officers won’t be involved in military activities.
Georgia
When Mikheil Saakashvili came to power, Tbilisi’s military expenditure began to grow. In 2003 Tbilisi spent $30 million. In 2007 expenditure grew to $1 billion – 24.5 times more. Ahead of the five-day war, it reached 8% of GDP. However, later they reduced. Last year the military budget of Georgia was less than $400 million. The Georgian army reduced after the war as well. Only 20 thousand people serve in it. They have 90 T-72 tanks, 63 APC and 137 AFV, 185 artillery cannons. The Air Forces have 12 fighter planes (Fulcrum) and 30 carrying helicopters Mi-8 and UH-1H Iroquois.
Before the five-day war Tbilisi purchased arms in Ukraine. Prague also exported weapons to Georgia. After the war Tbilisi didn’t purchase any weapons for two years; but in 2011 it purchased 12 SAU 2-S1-122 mm, 1500 machine pistols, 450 man-held machine guns, and 600 grenade launchers RPG-22 from Bulgaria. At the same time, Georgia gave up attempts to build a powerful army and focused on building compact armed forces which are able to hold joint operations with NATO. However, according to some experts, when Tbilisi loses hope of joining the alliance, it could change its view on returning Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the need to shed the blood of its soldiers in NATO operations.
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So we can say that the military expenditure of Georgia will depend on the geopolitical situation and agreements between Moscow and Washington. The situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is different. They are leaders in the military share of GDP in the world. Yerevan spends 4% of its national revenues on the purposes; Baku – 6%. These two countries of the region will continue to accumulate their armed forces. However, experts are sure that the peaceful capacities of Baku are quite enough for its dominance in the region – I mean financial resources and instruments of soft power.